Tomáš Sobotka, Vegard Skirbekk and Dimiter Philipov Demography Network of the European Observatory on the Social Situation - Demonet

ƒ Typically, fertility has a pro-cyclical relationship with economic growth. Recessions often lead to a temporary decline in period fertility levels one or two years later, partly reflecting a postponement of childbearing that is often later compensated during the period of improved economic conditions. ƒ Theories suggesting a counter-cyclical relationship between economic trends and fertility have not found much support in the empirical data. Among the OECD countries, GDP decline was associated with a subsequent fall in total fertility rates in 81% of the cases in the period 1980-2008. ƒ The negative impact of the recession on fertility rates is usually rather small, in the order of up to 5%. Major shifts in fertility rates, such as the fertility decline of the 1970s in many developed countries, may continue uninterrupted during the recession and may make the impact of the recession difficult to identify. ƒ Measures of unemployment and consumer sentiment reflect more closely the impact of the recession than a more general indicator of GDP decline. A close relationship between rising unemployment rate on one side and partnership formation and fertility on the other side has been repeatedly found in many studies. ƒ The recent recession took place under different social conditions than many recessions in the past. More women than ever are participating (and competing with men) on the labour market, most couples use reliable contraception that enables them to flexibly postpone their childbearing plans, and welfare systems are getting increasingly burdened by social security and health costs linked to the rapidly expanding numbers of elderly. All these factors can affect aggregate reproductive decisions, potentially aggravating the negative effects of the recession on fertility. ƒ Overall, the recent recession is likely to have some depressing effect on childbearing and push period fertility rates that are often considered too low to a slightly lower level in many countries, especially in 2010-2012. ƒ Preliminary data on births in 2009 confirm that many countries that recorded rising numbers of births and fertility rates after 2000 first experienced stagnation or a slight decline in total births in 2009. The Eurostat projection as of late January 2010 envisions a decline in total births in 2009 by 0.1% for the European Union as compared with a rise of 2.7% in 2008. ƒ We expect that the fertility reaction to the economic recession will be most pronounced among the younger people below age 28 and …